Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.936518 3.487494 4.101170 4.833588 5.682084 6.632214 7.774763
2025-07-06 2.025444 2.731103 3.607981 4.769585 6.258775 8.093761 10.514592
2025-07-13 1.634779 2.451398 3.562192 5.163367 7.387944 10.340997 14.523110
2025-07-20 1.307003 2.153290 3.399313 5.330985 8.203882 12.261918 18.354125
2025-07-27 1.086007 1.945353 3.301932 5.542014 9.073359 14.329870 22.614921
2025-08-03 0.882561 1.710796 3.106255 5.548684 9.608748 15.944313 26.373073
2025-08-10 0.695645 1.456577 2.822041 5.348760 9.764754 16.966523 29.307533
2025-08-17 0.543136 1.226453 2.529954 5.074234 9.737264 17.663451 31.763995
2025-08-24 0.447724 1.083930 2.367317 4.996164 10.023391 18.888240 35.186899
2025-08-31 0.374336 0.968975 2.234101 4.946166 10.342575 20.187674 38.845730
2025-09-07 0.336940 0.924974 2.235445 5.157264 11.172018 22.467021 44.428112
2025-09-14 0.290773 0.848627 2.152897 5.180330 11.631570 24.105027 48.989114
2025-09-21 0.248411 0.772828 2.061314 5.178230 12.057873 25.757935 53.804777
2025-09-28 0.211243 0.701012 1.965709 5.153138 12.436303 27.364522 58.703800
2025-10-05 0.203065 0.708553 2.064895 5.592324 13.867366 31.202522 68.289502
2025-10-12 0.183399 0.676886 2.058677 5.778895 14.761590 34.031732 76.113248
2025-10-19 0.167784 0.653429 2.069435 6.008286 15.779355 37.210048 84.909282
2025-10-26 0.146041 0.603497 1.997783 6.016363 16.280433 39.334327 91.702207
2025-11-02 0.120623 0.532506 1.850924 5.801583 16.217752 40.223118 95.961518
2025-11-09 0.097376 0.460893 1.685579 5.506220 15.913746 40.537950 99.002270
2025-11-16 0.083069 0.418451 1.600774 5.422211 16.132653 42.058115 104.808900
2025-11-23 0.071533 0.383022 1.530567 5.368393 16.422186 43.766414 111.171660
2025-11-30 0.066770 0.375327 1.552345 5.595662 17.491930 47.421258 122.250223